In reflecting upon the failed Bay of Pigs invasion, John F. Kennedy recalled
“There were 50 or so of us, presumably the most experienced and smartest people we could get, to plan such an operation… But five minutes after it began to fall in, we all looked at each other and asked, 'How could we have been so stupid?’”
The operation was doomed to fail. It was complex and relied on many unsubstantiated assumptions. Yet, despite the calibre of those involved, Kennedy “wasn’t aware of any great opposition” to the plan. Kennedy’s advisors later expressed that they kept their doubts private, not wanting to appear soft.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n2X36tiDAuU
“Go along to get along” — Destructive idiom
The Bay of Pigs is a textbook example of groupthink, where groups jump to consensus and avoid dissent. The outcome? Groups reach more extreme and confident conclusions than any individual member had at the start.
We all want a cohesive ‘in-group’. We want to be included, and avoid conflict, so don’t voice disagreement with others. Multiple meta-analyses of over 100 studies show that people conform to group decisions, even when they know the decision is wrong.
In the canonical example to the right, people were willing to give an incorrect answer (‘Line B’ or ‘Line C’) to conform with the rest of the group. The effects are stronger when they are close with the group (e.g., the group is their team). But, people are less likely to conform to the incorrect decision when there is at least one other person who is dissenting. Although these experiments are contrived, they indicate why devil’s advocates are useful.
People will conform to the group decision even when it’s wrong
We’re skeptical of evidence against our current beliefs, but easily accept evidence supporting them. In groups, this means each member is not only unlikely to voice dissent (because of conformity pressures) but if people do voice dissent, it’s less likely to be accepted.
For desired conclusions, we ask ourselves, ”Can I believe this?”, but for unpalatable conclusions, we ask, “Must I believe this?” — Thomas Gilovich
The devil’s advocate critiques and questions the group’s reasoning. This can encourage people to reflect, discuss, disagree, speak up, and ultimately, make better decisions.
If one person had voiced dissent about the Bay of Pigs plan, others may have spoken up too. A devil’s advocate, in this case, could have saved hundreds of lives and millions of dollars.
Kennedy learnt the hard way. The following year, during the Cuban Missile Crisis, he tasked his Attorney General to act as his devil’s advocate.